Avatar: Fire & Ash, the third film in James Cameron’s sci-fi saga has earned $1.328 billion worldwide. Sounds impressive? Not to the people who made it. Studio insiders aren’t celebrating because that number is far below the $2.74 billion earned by the original Avatar and the $2.32 billion pulled in by Avatar: The Way of Water. For a franchise used to breaking records, this feels like a stumble.
Avatar 3 has been the top movie in America for four weeks in a row, but the numbers tell a different story. According to Screendollars, by January 11 it had earned only 80% of what Avatar made and just 66% of what The Way of Water had raked in by the same point in their runs. And now, with 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple opening nationwide, Cameron’s blue aliens are expected to lose their grip on first place. That’s a sharp contrast to earlier entries that held the top spot for seven weeks straight.
At the moment, Fire & Ash ranks third among 2025’s global releases, behind Ne Zha 2 and Zootopia 2, two films largely pushed by Chinese audiences. For most directors, that would be incredible news. For Cameron, it’s a warning sign. He set the bar sky-high, and anything short of record-breaking could look like failure in Hollywood’s eyes.
There’s also that elephant in the room: the cost. Reports estimate the production budget between $350 million and $400 million—but that might be conservative. Cameron hasn’t exactly been open about the true price tag. Before release, he told The Town podcast, “It is one metric f– kton of money, which means that we have to make two metric f– ktons of money to make a profit.” That kind of honesty doesn’t calm investors.
The director voiced similar concerns on TVBS News, admitting the industry was “depressed” and that Avatar 3 would need to do well just to keep going. He said that for Avatar 4 and 5 to happen, they’d need both strong box office results and cheaper production methods. But how do you make an Avatar movie cheaply without losing its trademark spectacle?
Cameron’s unease might stem from larger trends. He’s already blamed streaming culture for eroding theater attendance. He even hinted that if Fire & Ash doesn’t deliver, the future sequels could be turned into novels instead of films. That sounds like frustration talking. After all, this franchise has been his life’s work for nearly two decades.
The timing may also have been off. Produced back-to-back with The Way of Water, the third film didn’t have the 13-year nostalgia gap that made the 2022 release feel like a cultural event. This time, the only crowd showing up is the hardcore fan base. The studio may have insisted on a quick turnaround for financial reasons, but that gamble could be backfiring.
Competing releases haven’t helped either. From Marty Supreme to The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants, the movie’s faced strong competition. Every weekend, critics shower its rivals with praise, while Fire & Ash struggles to keep momentum. Its 66% critic score—the lowest in the series—probably hasn’t helped ticket sales, either. Even loyal fans can lose enthusiasm when reviews turn sour.
So where does that leave Cameron? The filmmaker who once reinvented blockbuster cinema now faces a dilemma. If Avatar keeps shrinking at the box office, he’ll need to reinvent himself—or the franchise. But can James Cameron, the man behind Titanic and True Lies, really learn to make movies on a lean budget? History says no. He’s always dreamed big, spent big, and, until now, earned big. But times are changing, and Hollywood isn’t the same playground it once was.
Maybe it’s time for him to move on. Maybe the world doesn’t need five Avatar movies. It could be argued that despite big earnings, the films have had little to no impact on the culture. And if this installment’s performance keeps slipping, Cameron could finally let this thing go and begin exploring new stories again. That might be the best ending of all.
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