The winter box office is set for a major weekend as James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash takes flight in theaters across the globe. The movie returns audiences to Pandora, following Jake Sully and Neytiri as they face new challenges in the wake of Avatar: The Way of Water. It introduces the Ash People, a Na’vi clan shaped by volcanic landscapes and hardened by survival. The story explores shifting ideas of morality and what happens when both humans and Na’vi are forced to confront the cost of conflict. Early domestic presales are about 30 percent lower than Cameron’s previous entry, but the film’s worldwide rollout is still tracking toward a $350 million debut, placing it far ahead of any competition this weekend.
Also opening wide is The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants, a new animated adventure from Paramount. Playing in 3,557 theaters, the film brings back Tom Kenny as SpongeBob, with Rodger Bumpass and Bill Fagerbakke reprising their roles as Squidward and Patrick. Directed by Derek Drymon, the film follows SpongeBob’s friends as they set out to find him after he mysteriously disappears from Bikini Bottom. Analysts expect a debut near $17 million, a respectable opening given the crowded slate of family titles this month. Still, it faces tough competition from Disney’s Zootopia 2, which just passed $1.1 billion and continues to perform strongly.
Angel Studios enters the frame with its animated epic David, a faith-based film that has already generated roughly $14 million in presales. The movie is expected to cross $20 million for the weekend thanks to strong turnout from church groups and family audiences. The studio has built a reputation for mobilizing viewers through its network of supporters, making David a solid contender for the number two spot behind Cameron’s latest blockbuster.
In the thriller category, The Housemaid makes its theatrical debut in 3,015 theaters. Starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried, the film tells the story of a young woman who takes a housekeeping job in a wealthy home only to uncover dangerous secrets behind the family’s polished image. Directed by Paul Feig and based on the 2022 novel, the movie has drawn notable attention from adult female audiences and is expected to reach around $22 million in its opening weekend. Seyfried’s increasing awards momentum also adds to the film’s visibility.
With these major titles in release, theaters are set for their most competitive frame of the holiday season. Current projections suggest Avatar: Fire and Ash will lead the charts by a wide margin, followed by David and The Housemaid. Family films will round out the top five, with The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants and Zootopia 2 continuing to draw consistent traffic heading into the Christmas holiday.
Here’s where I think the top five box office rankings will end up for this December 19–21 weekend:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. David
3. The Housemaid
4. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
5. Zootopia 2
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